Because we are close to another election, we must address some common concerns people have about its impact on the market. People believe the market is at a crossroads during an election year for various reasons. Its final destination won’t be known until we know who will run the country. Given how much the media can fuel these concerns, it’s straightforward to get caught up in this narrative that there’s a potential collapse around the corner. As financial advisors, we see people make hasty decisions because of these emotions.
We want you to understand how previous elections have impacted the market to give you peace of mind and clarity. We go through this every four years. Stop worrying about the future and rely on the past. Ask yourself whether history supports the notion that elections have significantly disrupted markets.
Market Performance in Election Years
One of the most persistent myths is that the stock market performs poorly during election years. The assumption is that the uncertainty surrounding elections leads to weaker market returns. On the surface, it does make sense—which is why it is such an easy myth to get pulled into. However, historical data doesn’t back this. If you look at how the S&P 500 has performed since 1928, the average return during election years is 7.5%.
The average return in non-election years is 8.0%. So, yes, there is a slight drop, but it does show that the dropoff isn’t as significant as people think. A closer look reveals that while volatility can be higher in election years, this volatility won’t necessarily lead to adverse outcomes if you invest over the long term.
For example, while the average election year since 1980 has seen an intra-year drawdown of about 17%, markets have often recovered once election results are finalized. Additionally, economic fundamentals drive market returns, which remain stable or improve despite political uncertainty. This demonstrates that the stock market’s resilience often overrides the temporary fluctuations that might occur during an election year.
The Impact of Election Results on the Market
Another widespread belief is that markets will crash if a particular candidate wins. This idea is often fueled by the emotions and uncertainty that elections bring. However, historical trends show that the market’s response to election outcomes is unpredictable. Looking back at previous elections, market movements are more closely tied to the broader economic environment than to who wins the election. For example, during the 2008 election, the market was more influenced by the unfolding Global Financial Crisis than by the candidates’ policies.
Similarly, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had a far more significant impact on the market than the election itself. The data does not support the belief that the Federal Reserve avoids changing monetary policy during election years. The Fed has historically adjusted interest rates based on economic needs, regardless of the political calendar. For instance, since the 1950s, only in 2012 did the Fed refrain from raising or lowering rates during an election year. This shows that economic conditions, not political considerations, guide monetary policy decisions. After election results are announced and uncertainty fades, markets often rally. This pattern has been observed in many election years, indicating that the fear of a market crash tied directly to election outcomes is largely unfounded.
Focus On the Long Term & Work With Us
Worrying about market fluctuations in an election year is understandable, but history shows these concerns are often overblown. The market tends to remain stable, with performance more influenced by economic factors than the election. If you are concerned about how the upcoming election could impact your investments, schedule a meeting with our team at Worth Advisors. We can help you create a financial plan focusing on long-term goals rather than short-term election cycles.
Disclaimer: Always consult a financial, tax, or legal professional familiar with your unique circumstances before making any financial decisions. This material is intended for educational purposes only. Nothing in this material constitutes a solicitation to sell or purchase any securities. Any rates of return are historical or hypothetical in nature and are not a guarantee of future returns, which may be lower or higher. Investments involve risk. Investment values will fluctuate with market conditions and security positions, which, when sold, may be worth less or more than their original cost.
